Two Chinese military experts at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., pointed out that Xi Jinping's vigorous purge of senior military officials in recent years has not only created uncertainties in the original goal of completing preparations for an attack on Taiwan by 2027, but has also led to outside doubts about whether Xi can still trust his generals to make the right decisions in wartime.
Chinese military experts Phillip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow co-wrote an article in the New York Times guest commentary titled "Major shakeup in the PLA top leadership: Can Xi Jinping still ‘reunify’ Taiwan by force?"
The two pointed out in the article that although China's military strength has grown significantly, becoming the world's largest armed force and approaching the US military in terms of air force, navy and missile capabilities, its command effectiveness may be significantly affected by internal corruption and high-level purges.
The article pointed out that in the past two years, China has had two defense ministers (Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu) and a series of PLA officers dismissed, including senior officials of the Rocket Force, which controls China's nuclear weapons.
According to reports, those dismissed included He Weidong, the No. 2 figure in the People's Liberation Army who had reported directly to Xi Jinping and was deeply involved in the plan to attack Taiwan.
Experts believe that this wave of personnel turmoil has exposed the trust crisis and organizational effectiveness problems in the PLA leadership system, and may also buy Taiwan and the United States more time to strengthen their defenses.
The article points out that although the People's Liberation Army has continued to conduct actual combat exercises against Taiwan for many years, including a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan in April this year, trying to overcome technical challenges such as amphibious operations and logistical transportation, hardware advantages do not mean a quick victory can be achieved. Especially since China has not participated in any war since 4, the current generals lack actual combat experience.Xi Jinping himself has expressed concerns about this.
The article points out that the deeper problem is that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the military may not be solid.
The People's Liberation Army is the army of the Communist Party of China. Officers must swear allegiance to the party and accept orders directly from Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China. In theory, the party should have firm control over the military, but in reality this is not the case. Mao Zedong's famous saying "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun" highlights the importance of the military. In order to ensure the loyalty of the military, the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party often grant it a high degree of autonomy, which is tantamount to allowing the military to supervise itself.
The article further states thatLong-term increase in military spending has fostered a culture of corruptionThe targets of Xi Jinping's crackdown in recent years are mostly his cronies, which also shows that the problems in the military are not simply factional struggles, but institutional corruption. A US Department of Defense report even revealed that some missile silos had maintenance delays due to corruption.
Sun Fei and Wu Zhiyuan pointed out that if Xi Jinping cannot rely on military advisers to provide real combat readiness intelligence, it will pose a potential risk to strategic decision-making. Take He Weidong as an example. He used to be the commander of the Eastern Theater Command and led the combat plan against Taiwan. In 2022, he was promoted to Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and became Xi Jinping’s core military adviser. Now he has also been dismissed, raising doubts about the Taiwan strategy.
However, this does not mean that the United States and Taiwan can relax. The author warns that once the Chinese Communist Party determines that Taiwan is moving towards legal independence, it may rashly send troops even if the military is not fully prepared. Especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to strong Western sanctions and defeat in the war, the Chinese Communist Party should understand more that even with strong military power, it is still difficult to guarantee victory in one battle.
The article emphasizes that Xi Jinping may not be eager for war at present, because attacking Taiwan will not only severely damage China's economy, but may also shake his personal power base. Despite this, risks still exist, and both the United States and Taiwan must enhance their defense capabilities.
The author suggests that Taiwan should give priority to purchasing weapons that can effectively repel aggression, such as anti-ship missiles, mines and drones. The United States should deploy more long-range weapons in the Indo-Pacific region, combined with innovative tactics, to deter the PLA’s lack of combat experience.
The article finally points out that the biggest risk at present is not whether China starts a war, but that provocative behavior and misjudgment will trigger an uncontrollable conflict. Therefore, leaders of Taiwan and the United States should maintain strategic clarity and avoid overreaction.At the same time, it is understood that Xi Jinping may not have any intention of sending an army with many internal problems to the battlefield in the short term.
