Although China is one of the world’s largest pork producers, a new study warns that its massive livestock and aquaculture industries are highly dependent on overseas feed sources such as soybeans. In the event of war, extreme weather, or international supply chain disruptions, the cost for China’s nearly 1.4 billion people to access affordable meat and protein could come under pressure.
Singapore-registered biotech company Full Circle Biotechnology released the “Protein Sovereignty Index,” assessing the protein supply resilience of 43 countries and territories worldwide. China ranked 21st and was classified as “exposed,” with key problems including a high degree of reliance on imported feed and limited room for further expansion of land and water resources.
Report co-author Felix Collins noted that China produces nearly half of the world’s pork and has the world’s largest aquaculture industry, but the feed these industries require “exceeds what China can grow itself.”
China is basically self-sufficient in rice and wheat, but when animal feed is included, about one-third of its protein sources rely on imports — a volume even greater than the combined imports of the United States and the European Union. China currently imports soybeans mainly from Brazil and the United States for animal feed and cooking oil production.
The latest data from China’s customs authority show that from January to September this year, cumulative grain imports reached about 117 million tonnes, up 9.7% from the same period last year; soybeans alone accounted for 86 million tonnes, roughly 73% of total grain imports.
Beyond soybeans, China’s rapidly growing aquaculture industry has also increased demand for imported fishmeal. Due to a strong El Niño, sea temperatures along the coast of Peru — the world’s largest fishmeal source — have risen and anchovy catches have declined, pushing global fishmeal prices to record highs in recent months. The Middle East conflict has disrupted some fertilizer supplies, further highlighting the risks to the global food supply chain.
China’s own resource conditions also pose constraints. Collins pointed out that the North China Plain holds about a quarter of China’s arable land but less than 8% of its water resources, making it difficult for Beijing to significantly increase domestic feed production in a short period of time.
Facing shortages of land and water, Chinese authorities have in recent years continued to promote dietary diversification, hoping to reduce concentrated reliance on traditional staple grains and pork while increasing poultry, fish, and other protein sources.
Data released by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs at the end of September showed that in 2025, China’s per capita meat availability reached 72.5 kilograms, about 1.5 times the global average, while per capita poultry egg availability reached 24.9 kilograms, exceeding the level of developed countries.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized that in the future, in addition to improving farmland productivity, a more diversified food supply system must be established, including developing industries such as deep-sea aquaculture, to increase sources of high-quality protein.
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